"IT PAYS TO PLAY WITH THE POSSUM"
9-1-10
NCAA
KICKOFF!
Football:
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Handicapping Article 1:
Handicapping New Head Coaches
Written By: The Possum
Every year The Possum takes a look at the new head coaches
in Football. This article will focus on
handicapping the new head coach in the College ranks. Inevitably every year we have the revolving
door for coaches. Some get fired, some
get hired, some get to dust the cobwebs off their old playbooks and somehow get
a new job coaching. Others just take
more money and move to a new situation.
Some go to strip clubs, some party and drink with their student athletes
and some lock their players in closets and get fired! This year is no different as the coaching
landscape takes on a new looks.
This year we find 22 new head coaches making a new life for
themselves in D 1-A. (Last year 21)
Akron Buffalo C. Mich Cinci ECU FSU Kansas
Kentucky UL Monroe LA Tech Louisville Marshall Memphis ND
San Jose S. Florida Southern Cal Tenn T Tech UNLV UVA
And W. Kent
With new coaches comes new enthusiasm, like at FSU where the
Jimbo Fisher era has high hopes after moving that old
fossil out of town, S. Florida where Skip tries to bring that Holtz magic to
the deep south, and of course at Notre Dame where coach Kelly will throw the
ball all over the field. These coaches
must install their new schemes, strategies, philosophies and coaching style to
their teams. The first year and
especially early in the season, the bonding, cohesion and timing just aren’t
there.
With last year being an anomaly as new head coaches went
121-113-4 ATS we know that first year head coaches are 612-703-14 ATS since
1999. When these new head coaches are a
double digit favorite they are just 83-127 ATS since 1991. When these coaches are a 15 point or more
favorite they are just 31-66 ATS since 1991 In 2003 this trend went 2-5 with GT
going 1-2 and UF going 1-3! Hold on
it gets worse, if they are coming into a conference game off a win and are
a 15 point or more favorite these coaches fall to just 6-26 ATS. An example of this happened in 2002 at UF
where UF was off the Tennessee win and came
into the Kentucky
game favored by over 15 and they had an ATS loss then they came into the Vandy game off a UGA win and had an ATS loss! These are plastered in my mind as a Gator
grad for ever.
Can you imagine betting against these coaches and going 26-6
ATS in 32 games! The Possum hopes
you know now why it is so important to take a look at the revolving college
coaching door each year!
If you are just looking for an easy wager consider that
since 1994 1st year head coaches in game one are 78-114-5 ATS.
Look for The Possum this year to help you with all your
WINNING Football needs!
Good luck in the upcoming season!
